Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 1 at a 43% chance, ahead of 2 at 21% and 4 at 15%.
This market will resolve according to the number of people who leave the Trump Cabinet between market creation and January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. An announcement of an individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation or removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If an individual who is not a Cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed Cabinet position, their resignation or removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a Cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Cabinet members who left the Cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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