Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This market resolves YES if the People’s Republic of China announces that it has imposed—or is credibly established to have imposed in practice—an aerial or naval blockade affecting Taiwan by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves NO. What qualifies as a blockade: Chinese action must prevent the normal arrival or departure of foreign commercial traffic at Taiwan Island’s principal ports or airports through the threat or use of force for at least 24 consecutive hours. The blockade may cover all or only part of Taiwan’s main island, also known as Formosa. A blockade may qualify through an official Chinese declaration combined with enforcement, or through de facto enforcement established by a broad consensus of credible reporting. De facto enforcement requires China to block a significant portion of the foreign commercial traffic described above, even if China does not formally announce a blockade. Chinese navigation or airspace restrictions covering the main approach routes to Taiwan Island also qualify if they are actively enforced and deny most foreign commercial access. What does NOT qualify: Military or naval exercises, drills, warning zones, and NOTAMs do not count unless they actively prevent third-country vessels or aircraft from entering or leaving and materially deny access. Economic or coercive measures—including sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyberattacks, or GPS jamming—are insufficient without physical interdiction or an enforced closure. Closures caused by weather or accidents do not qualify. Voluntary rerouting by commercial operators also does not count unless it results from Chinese enforcement. Incidents limited to Taiwan’s outlying islets are excluded if they do not affect the main island. The seizure or inspection of a single vessel or aircraft is insufficient unless it forms part of an enforced pattern that denies access under the conditions described above. Resolution source: A broad consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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