Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:04 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 59% chance and No at 41%.
YES if Ilse Aigner is the person who takes the oath and formally starts as Germany's next federal president at any point up to 23:59 ET on 30 Jun 2027. The presidential vote by the federal assembly is currently planned for 30 Jan 2027. Being elected is not enough: the swearing-in must actually happen by the cut-off. A temporary or caretaker head of state does not count. Anything else is NO, including another person taking office, or nobody being sworn in by the cut-off. Germany's government announcements decide the result; if they are missing, consistent reports from reputable news outlets may be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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