Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 9% chance and No at 91%.
YES if Alaska is the state where the Democrat running for Senate posts the largest share of the vote among six 2026 Senate races (Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, Texas, Iowa and Maine) in the midterm election set for 3 November 2026; if a Democrat in one of the other five states does better, NO. A share is the candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes in that race. In a runoff, ranked-choice or other multi-round count, the last reported round that still has a Democrat in it is used, and only ballots not exhausted in that round count; if that round has more than one Democrat, the larger Democratic share is used. Identical shares are ordered by state name, alphabetically first ahead. A state whose share still cannot be worked out on 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET drops out of the comparison and is NO. Returns certified by the state election authorities decide, with broad agreement among reliable news reports as supporting evidence.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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