Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 23 October 2026, 23:23 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if Priyan Samarakoone is elected in the Vancouver-Yaletown seat at the British Columbia provincial general election on 24 October 2026, for the regular term starting in October 2026 or later; otherwise NO. Only the winner of this constituency counts. If another candidate, listed or not, wins the seat, NO. If the result is not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on 31 March 2027, NO. The winner is taken from broad agreement among reputable election reports; if that leaves doubt, the official result published by Elections BC (elections.bc.ca) decides. Changes after the result is known, such as a resignation or a switch of party, do not alter the outcome.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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