Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if the top eligible model belongs to Microsoft when the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026, with the Models filter and style control off (Adjustments: None). Models marked AutoEval at that check are excluded even when a rank or score is displayed. Rank orders the eligible models. For a Rank tie, compare the underlying unrounded Arena scores in the table data; if still tied, order company names alphabetically, with Google before SpaceXAI. If any other company is first, whether or not it has its own prediction, Microsoft is NO. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the scheduled check, use the first successful check after it returns; if it never returns, NO. Official information from the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
