Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Paxton 0-3% at a 30% chance, ahead of Talarico 3-6% at 23% and Talarico 0-3% at 21%.
This prediction is about the 2026 general election for the U.S. Senate seat from Texas, expected on 3 November 2026, not about the Texas State Senate. The margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second, where each share is the candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. The Paxton bands mean that the Republican nominee (Ken Paxton) wins by a margin inside that band, and the Talarico bands mean that the Democratic nominee (James Talarico) wins by a margin inside that band. If either man is replaced as his party's nominee before election day, his bands follow the replacement nominee. Independent and third-party candidates represent neither party. YES goes to the band that matches the winner's party and the margin; a margin exactly on the boundary between two bands counts in the higher band. If candidates are level for first place: a tie between the Republican and Democratic nominees goes to the lowest band of the one whose surname on the ballot comes first alphabetically; a tie between one of them and any other candidate goes to the lowest band of that nominee; a tie only among other candidates makes every band NO. Every band is also NO if a candidate who is neither the Republican nor the Democratic nominee wins, or if the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. The official vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount starts before that, settlement waits until the recount is complete and the count is official. Official results published by the Texas authority that certifies the election decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used. At most one band is YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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