Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES applies if law enforcement arrests or detains Phoebe Gates by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise NO applies. Official detention while awaiting a judge’s decision on a detention warrant counts. Qualifying actions include physical custody by national, regional, municipal, military, or cross-border authorities; surrender in response to an arrest warrant; formal booking or processing after detention; handcuffing by a state authority followed by transport to a police station; surrender with her lawyer at a station or courthouse; and house arrest or electronic monitoring. An unexecuted arrest warrant, questioning without arrest, and an indictment without arrest do not count. Use records or statements from the responsible authorities first; corroborating reliable coverage may also settle the fact.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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