Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES if, at any time from 22 September 2026 at 12:17 PM ET up to 15 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, representatives of Israel and of Lebanon hold a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting. The representatives must act in an official capacity and be authorised by their governments to negotiate or conduct diplomacy on Israel–Lebanon relations. Indirect talks held in person also count: for example, both delegations attend the same round of talks while designated mediators, facilitators or go-betweens, acting with the knowledge and approval of both governments, carry messages between them, even if the delegations never sit at the same table. Brief greetings, chance encounters and talks with no deliberate diplomatic or negotiating purpose do not count, and neither do video calls, phone calls or any meeting where the relevant representatives are not physically present. Meetings held before 12:17 PM ET on 22 September 2026 do not count. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by the Israeli or the Lebanese government, or be reported consistently by several credible media outlets. Otherwise the answer is NO. Official information from the governments of Israel and Lebanon decides; reliable news reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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