Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if the Republican nominee finishes first in the 2026 election for governor of Hawaii, held on 3 November 2026, by any margin; if the Democratic nominee or anyone else finishes first, NO. Shares are each candidate's valid ballots divided by the total valid ballot count. The Republican means the Republican nominee, including a replacement named before election day; an independent never counts as the Republican. In a tie for first place, YES only when the Republican nominee ties with the Democratic nominee and has the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, or ties with a candidate who is not a party nominee; every other tie is NO. Hawaii's certified count decides; a recount begun before certification keeps the outcome open until the recount is complete and official. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. The certifying state authority is the main evidence, and broadly corroborated journalism may supplement it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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