Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 11:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This prediction covers the 2026 Michigan general election, scheduled for 3 Nov 2026, local time. It sets the Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed against the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson, using the gap between their shares. YES if Abdul El-Sayed runs ahead of Jocelyn Benson. Anything else is NO. A vote share is one candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes in that race, write-ins included, using certified totals without rounding. Where a race runs a runoff, ranked-choice or another multi-round count, the share comes from the final round that still lists the candidate alongside at least one rival. Identical shares count as NO. If a candidate withdraws or is removed from the ballot and records no votes, or no share is fixed by 31 Mar 2027, that candidate is treated as holding 0%. The Michigan Secretary of State's certified results decide; consistent reports from reputable news outlets may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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