Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
YES if former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained in a qualifying way by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Any of the following qualifies: being taken into physical custody by any law-enforcement authority (federal, state, local, military or international); giving himself up to the authorities because a warrant for his arrest has been issued; being formally booked or processed after being held; being handcuffed by state authorities and brought to a police station; turning himself in at a police station or court together with his lawyer; or being put under house arrest or electronic monitoring. These do not count: an arrest warrant that is issued but never carried out; a short hold that does not become an arrest (for example, waiting while a judge decides whether a detention warrant should be granted); questioning or an interview without an arrest; or being named in an indictment but not arrested. Official information from the government and law-enforcement authority carrying out the arrest decides; reliable news coverage may also be used. If no qualifying arrest or detention happens by the deadline, NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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