Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
YES if OpenAI officially and publicly retracts the Navier–Stokes solution it announced on 8 September 2026 (published on openai.com) at any time from 9 September 2026 until 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A retraction means OpenAI itself states that the published proof is incorrect or fails to resolve the Navier–Stokes problem. Claims by anyone else, such as mathematicians, journals or the media, do not count. Updated or corrected versions do not count unless OpenAI withdraws the claim that the original proof is a correct solution. Comments only about the authorship of, or credit for, the result, or about its eligibility for a Millennium Prize, are not enough by themselves. If no such retraction is made by the deadline, the answer is NO. Official information from OpenAI decides; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
