Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:34 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if the Democratic Party wins exactly 5 of Michigan's voting-member U.S. House seats in the midterm election on 3 November 2026; otherwise NO. All Michigan House contests choosing voting members of the 120th Congress count; special elections filling an unexpired vacancy do not, while qualifying runoffs do. Each seat is assigned by the winner's party label on election day, even if the affiliation later changes or the seat is vacated. An independent member counts for a party if they formally caucus, or announce an intent to caucus, with it before election day. If an independent's choice is not known by election day, the prediction stays open until that member announces it or until 4 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, whichever is first; an announcement by then counts for the party named, and without one the member counts for no party. Official information from Michigan's election authorities and the U.S. Congress decides, together with consistent reporting from reputable outlets.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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