Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the end of the specified date, ET — 05:59 CET/CEST on the following morning. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under one of the layers set out below on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market's resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalised ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading reflecting either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours" or "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives" will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Ukraine de jure control will not qualify — actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
