Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:57 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 36% chance and No at 64%.
YES if Donald Trump's job approval, read as the Approve figure in the RCP Average row of RealClearPolling's President Trump Job Approval table, stands at 41% or higher at 17:00 ET on any day from the launch of this prediction up to and including 30 Jun 2027. Anything else is NO. Each day only the figure shown at 17:00 ET counts; later updates or revisions are ignored, except fixes of plain data errors. Such errors mean clerical or similar slips in the data, not gaps between RealClearPolling and other pollsters. When an obvious data error appears, settlement may wait to the close of the 3rd calendar day (ET) after the day that data first came out, so it can be fixed. A new method for computing the average changes nothing. Should the RCP Average be unavailable at 17:00 ET on 30 Jun 2027, settlement may wait to the close of the 3rd calendar day (ET) after it; if there is still no update, the last average published before 17:00 ET on 30 Jun 2027 applies. The figure is read to one decimal place, as RealClearPolling shows it. RealClearPolling's published RCP Average decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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