Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 3% chance and Democratic Party at 96%.
YES is the party answer that matches the political party of whoever wins the U.S. House seat for California's 4th congressional district (CA-04) in the 2026 midterm elections, with the general election held on 3 November 2026; the other party answer is NO. The winner's party is fixed at the moment when every 2026 U.S. House race has been conclusively called by the deciding sources below, using the party shown for the winner on the ballot or any other identifiable affiliation with a party. If the winner has no Democratic or Republican ballot affiliation, the winner counts for whichever of these two parties they most recently said they intend to caucus with at that moment. If the winner counts as neither Democratic nor Republican under these tests, both answers are NO, so at most one answer can be YES. Agreement among reliable news reports decides; if there is any ambiguity, only the official results published by the U.S. government decide, in particular those of the Federal Election Commission (FEC). There is no fixed cut-off date: the prediction settles once the CA-04 winner and their party are known. Dates in these rules are in ET.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by
