Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, versus prices Michael Baumgartner (R) at a 82% chance and Carmela Conroy (D) at 18%.
YES goes to the party whose candidate wins the U.S. House seat for Washington's 5th congressional district (WA-05) in the 2026 midterm elections, with election day on 3 November 2026. The answers are parties, not people: “Republican Party” is YES if the winner counts as a Republican, and “Democratic Party” is YES if the winner counts as a Democrat. Michael Baumgartner (Republican) and Carmela Conroy (Democratic) are mentioned as the candidates only for reference: if a party's candidate changes, or someone else who counts for that party wins, that party's answer is still YES. The winner's party is the affiliation shown on the ballot or otherwise clearly identifiable at the moment every 2026 House race has been conclusively called; a winner without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they would caucus with at that moment. If the winner counts for neither party, both answers are NO, so at most one answer can be YES. Broad agreement among reputable news reports decides the result; if that reporting is ambiguous, only the official result published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) decides. There is no fixed settlement deadline: voting ends when polls close on the evening of 3 November 2026, local time in the district, and the answer waits for the race calls described above, however long counting, recounts or any runoff take.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
