Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
YES applies if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is no longer the U.S. health secretary for any period through 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A resignation or removal announcement made before the cutoff counts immediately even if its effective date is later. NO applies when he remains in the post throughout the period. Official information from Kennedy and the U.S. government is primary; a consistent set of reputable reports may corroborate it when official material is not yet available. The answer concerns the officeholder status, not a temporary absence, rumour, or proposed personnel change.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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