Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:47 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
Resolves YES if, at any point between 24 September 2026, 07:37:40 UTC and 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time, Abiy Ahmed stops being Prime Minister of Ethiopia, even for a short time. Otherwise NO. If Abiy Ahmed's resignation or removal is announced before 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time, that is enough for YES straight away, even if the change is only due to take effect later. YES also applies if, within the window, he is detained, is effectively pushed out of the post, or is otherwise permanently kept from carrying out the duties of Prime Minister. Decided mainly by official information from Abiy Ahmed and the Ethiopian government; broad agreement among reliable reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
