Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 17% chance and No at 83%.
This market resolves Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. For this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025, 6:00 PM CET is treated as the sovereign territory of that country. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible sources.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
