Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican candidate wins at a 38% chance, ahead of Democratic candidate, margin 60%-65% at 38% and Democratic candidate, margin 50%-55% at 38%.
YES goes to the answer whose party and margin range match the result of the U.S. House general election in Virginia's 8th congressional district (VA-08), scheduled for 3 November 2026. The margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second; each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. The Democratic answers stand for the Democratic Party's nominee and the Republican answer for the Republican Party's nominee; if a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement takes over that party's answers. Independent and third-party candidates count for neither party. A Democratic answer is YES when the Democratic nominee finishes first and the margin falls inside its range; "Republican candidate wins" is YES when the Republican nominee finishes first, by any margin. A margin landing exactly on the line between two ranges goes to the higher range. If anyone other than the two party nominees finishes first, every answer is NO. If two or more candidates tie for first place, YES goes to the lowest range of a tied party nominee ("Democratic candidate, margin 0%-25%" for the Democrat, "Republican candidate wins" for the Republican); if both nominees are part of the tie, the one whose surname as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically is used, and if neither nominee is part of the tie, every answer is NO. The official vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount starts before then, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. At most one answer can be YES. Official results published by the Virginia election authority that certifies the race decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
