Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices September 30 at a <1% chance and December 31 at 13%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between the creation of this market and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation or removal made before this market's end date will resolve the market to "Yes" immediately, regardless of when that resignation or removal takes effect. If he is detained, effectively removed from the position, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out its duties within this market's timeframe, that will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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