Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:06 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is December 31, 2027 at a 32% chance, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 5% and December 31, 2026 at 5%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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