Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 30% or more at a 56% chance, ahead of Democrat 25-30% at 18% and Democrat 20-25% at 8%.
This prediction is about the 2026 general election for the U.S. Senate seat from Rhode Island, scheduled for 3 November 2026, not about the Rhode Island State Senate or a primary. The margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second, where each share is the candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. Republican wins is YES if the Republican nominee wins, whatever the margin; each Democrat band is YES if the Democratic nominee wins by a margin inside that band. A margin exactly on the boundary between two bands counts in the higher band. Only the Democratic and Republican nominees represent those parties; independents represent neither, and if a party's nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee takes that party's place. If candidates are level for first place: a tie between the two nominees goes to the lowest band of the nominee whose surname on the ballot comes first alphabetically (for the Republican nominee that is Republican wins); a tie between one nominee and any other candidate goes to the lowest band of that nominee; a tie only among other candidates makes every answer NO. Every answer is also NO if a candidate who is neither nominee wins, or if the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. The official vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount starts before that, settlement waits until the recount is complete and the count is official. Official results published by the Rhode Island authority that certifies the election decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used. At most one answer is YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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