Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement on or before January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” A qualifying arrest or detention includes being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities, including federal, state, local, military, or international authorities. It also includes voluntarily surrendering in response to an arrest warrant, being formally booked or processed after detention, being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station, surrendering at a police station or courthouse with an attorney, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. Temporary detention while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant also counts, so long as Dario Amodei is being held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that period. The following do not count: an arrest warrant that is issued but never executed, questioning or interviewing without arrest, or being named in an indictment without being arrested. Resolution is based primarily on official information from the arresting government or law enforcement authorities, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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