Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 7 at a 36% chance, ahead of 8 at 33% and At least 9 at 20%.
YES goes to the range containing the number of voting US House seats won by Democrats in Virginia in the 2026 midterms for the 120th Congress. Exclude elections filling only the remainder of an existing term, even when held alongside the midterms. A runoff for an included election determines that seat. Attribute each seat to the party under which its winner was elected; later party changes or vacancies do not alter that attribution. Independents count with a party if they formally caucus with it or announce an intention to do so before election day. For an independent whose choice is unknown at election day, settlement may wait until their announcement or 4 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no announcement arrives by that cutoff, the independent counts toward no party. Use official records from the relevant state election authorities and the US Congress, together with agreement across credible reporting. The matching range is YES; other ranges are NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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