How big will the win be in Florida's 14th congressional district?

As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican lead from 9 to under 12 points at a 38% chance, ahead of Republican lead from 3 to under 6 points at 38% and Republican lead from 0 to under 3 points at 38%.

Category

politics

Closes

2026-11-03 12:00 UTC

Answers

10

Chances as of

2026-10-11 00:27 UTC

This prediction is settled by the official result of the 2026 general election for the US House of Representatives seat of Florida's 14th congressional district (FL-14), currently scheduled for 3 November 2026. Primary elections and contests for state legislative seats do not count. The margin is the gap, in percentage points, between the candidates who finish first and second. Each of their two shares equals that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of all valid votes cast in this House race, and the smaller share is then subtracted from the larger one. YES goes to the answer that names the party of the first-place finisher and whose range contains that margin. Each range includes its lower figure and excludes its upper figure, so a margin landing exactly on a boundary goes to the higher range (for example, a lead of exactly 9 points counts as 'Republican lead from 9 to under 12 points', not 'Republican lead from 6 to under 9 points'). The Democratic answers refer to the candidate nominated by the Democratic Party and the Republican answers to the candidate nominated by the Republican Party; if either party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement counts for that party. Independent candidates and candidates of any other party count for neither. If first place ends in a tie between two or more candidates and at least one of them is a Democratic or Republican nominee, the tied Democratic or Republican nominee whose surname as listed on the ballot comes first alphabetically decides, and YES goes to the lowest answer of that candidate's party: 'Democratic lead from 0 to under 3 points' for a Democrat, 'Republican lead from 0 to under 3 points' for a Republican. If the first-place finisher, or every candidate tied for first place, is neither the Democratic nor the Republican nominee, every listed answer is NO. The vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount begins before then, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is still not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every listed answer is NO. At most one listed answer is YES. Certified results published by the Florida state election authority that certifies this race decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.