Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 09:19 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 14% chance and No at 86%.
Review the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's first-published RONI values for five successive three-month periods: ASO 2026; then SON 2026; then OND 2026; then NDJ 2026–27; finally DJF 2026–27. YES if the highest of these values is 2.25 or more and under 2.5 (°C); otherwise NO. A value exactly on a band boundary goes into the higher band, so each band includes its lower figure and excludes its upper figure. Once any period reaches +2.5°C or higher, the result is settled at once as a highest value of at least 2.5. Other bands wait for the DJF 2026–27 figure, because a later period can still be higher. The first publication for each period is final; later revisions do not alter it. If the CPC dataset is permanently discontinued, use other NOAA information. All deadline times are ET.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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