Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 37% chance and No at 63%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the creation of this market and 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge's decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, provided he is held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest or detention includes being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities, whether federal, state, local, military or international; voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement in response to an arrest warrant; being formally booked or processed following detention; being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station; surrendering at a police station or courthouse with his attorney; and being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. The following will not qualify: an arrest warrant being issued but not executed, being questioned or interviewed without arrest, and being named in an indictment without arrest. The primary resolution source will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
