Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 4% chance and Democratic Party at 95%.
YES goes to the party of whoever wins the U.S. House seat for Connecticut's 5th congressional district (CT-05) in the 2026 midterm elections on 3 November 2026. A candidate's party is the one listed on the ballot or otherwise clearly identifiable, judged at the moment reliable news organisations have conclusively called all 2026 House races. A winner listed with neither the Democratic nor the Republican Party counts for whichever of the two they most recently said they intend to caucus with at that moment. Republican Party is YES if the winner counts as a Republican and Democratic Party is YES if the winner counts as a Democrat; if the winner counts for neither, both answers are NO. At most one answer is YES. The winner is taken from broad agreement among reliable news reports; if that is ambiguous, only the official results reported by the US Federal Election Commission (FEC) decide. The prediction settles once the winner and the winner's party are clear under these rules. All dates are in US Eastern Time (ET).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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