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As of 12 October 2026, 09:18 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
Covers the 2026 general election for Missouri's 5th congressional district (MO-05) in the US House of Representatives, scheduled for 3 November 2026. Take the official vote count once it is final, work out what share of all valid votes cast in the race each of the two leading candidates received, and subtract the second-place share from the first-place share; that gap in percentage points is the margin. YES if the Republican nominee finishes first with a margin of at least 12 but under 15 percentage points (Republican margin 12% to 15%); otherwise NO. A margin landing exactly on the line between two bands counts for the higher band, so each band includes its lower figure and excludes its upper figure. Independent and third-party candidates stand for neither party, so if one of them finishes first, the answer is NO. If a party's nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee stands for that party. Ties for first place: if the Democratic and Republican nominees tie, the result counts as the 0% to 3% band of the party whose nominee's ballot-listed surname comes first alphabetically; if one of the two nominees ties with another candidate, it counts as the 0% to 3% band of that nominee's party; if the tie for first involves neither nominee, the answer is NO. If a recount begins before the count is official, wait until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. The official results published by Missouri's state election authority that certifies the race decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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