Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 14% chance and No at 86%.
YES applies if, at any point between 20 September 2026 and 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the airspace of Saudi Arabia, defined as the Jeddah Flight Information Region (Jeddah FIR, ICAO code OEJD), is shut to commercial aviation. This requires a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) or other official order, issued under Saudi rules by the civil aviation or government authority in charge of that region, that halts or cancels commercial flights throughout the region by default. The shutdown has to cover commercial traffic in general: transiting flights passing through the region as well as flights arriving in it and flights departing from it. An order that stops only some of these is not enough. A closure still counts if the order lets a limited number of flights operate as exceptions, such as medical, humanitarian, emergency or repatriation flights, or individual flights the authority approves, provided that commercial flights are banned unless exempted rather than allowed with conditions or limits. The following do not count: (1) weather-related closures, including closures for volcanic or seismic activity; (2) closures for public holidays or religious occasions; (3) closures planned or announced before 20 September 2026; (4) recurring closures on a schedule fixed before 20 September 2026, whether or not announced; (5) closures caused by technical failures, such as an outage or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communication, power or other systems; (6) restrictions that target aircraft by nationality, country of registration, airline or owner instead of commercial traffic in general; (7) closures of only part of the region, such as certain sectors or altitude levels; (8) ground stops, flow control, reduced capacity or other traffic-management steps that slow or limit flights without shutting the region to commercial aviation; and (9) warnings, no-fly zones, flight bans or other restrictions issued by anyone other than the authorities in charge of the region. A closure is treated as occurring at the moment it takes effect, regardless of when it was announced or the order was issued; if the order states no effective time, it takes effect when issued. Official information from the Saudi government decides, in particular from GACA (the General Authority of Civil Aviation), SANS (Saudi Air Navigation Services) and the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, together with agreement among reliable news reports. If no qualifying closure takes effect in that period, NO applies.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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