Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is sentenced to any time in jail or prison for any charges by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open through January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET, or until the specified individual is sentenced to time in jail or prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.” If at any point the investigation or any resulting criminal case against the specified individual formally ends without any possibility of a jail or prison sentence being issued, including due to no charges being filed, charges being dismissed, an acquittal, or any other situation in which no judgment is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
