Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 53% chance and No at 47%.
YES if the Republican nominee (currently Robert Sprague) wins Ohio's 2026 election for Secretary of State, scheduled for 3 November 2026. If that party's named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement counts instead. NO if a candidate of any other party or an independent wins, or if the outcome is not definitively known by 31 July 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Agreement among reliable news reports decides; in case of doubt, the official results from the authority that certifies the election count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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