Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:57 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This prediction concerns Ohio's voting seats in the US House for the 120th Congress, filled through the 2026 US midterms. YES if the Democratic Party's seat count is exactly 2; any other total settles NO. Include every Ohio House contest forming part of those midterms that elects a voting representative for that Congress. Inclusion is not restricted to polling on election day. Exclude special contests filling the remaining portion of an existing term, even if voting coincides with the midterms. Any required runoff determines attribution of that seat. Attribute each seat to the party for which the winner was elected. A member-elect changing party or leaving the seat after the midterm election date does not change that attribution. An independent counts in a party's tally if, before the midterm election date, they formally caucus with that party or declare an intention to do so. If the relevant independents' caucus intentions are still unclear on election day, settlement may wait for an announcement. This wait ends upon the relevant announcement or at 23:59 Eastern Time (ET) on 4 Jan 2027, whichever comes first. A member whose intention remains unannounced at that cutoff contributes no seat to any party's total. Official information from Ohio's electoral authorities and the US Congress provides the evidence; agreement across reputable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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