Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 3% chance and Democratic Party at 97%.
At most one answer is YES, and it follows the party of whoever wins the House seat for Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (PA-04) at the U.S. midterm election on 3 November 2026. Republican Party is YES if that winner is a Republican, and Democratic Party is YES if the winner is a Democrat. The winner's party is the affiliation shown on the ballot, or otherwise identifiable, at the moment all 2026 House races have been conclusively called by the sources named below. A winner without a Democratic or Republican ballot affiliation is counted with whichever of the two parties they most recently said they intend to caucus with, judged at that same moment. If the winner has neither affiliation and has stated no intent to caucus with either party, both answers are NO. Consistent reporting by reputable news outlets decides the result; if that is unclear, only the official results published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) count. Dates in these rules use Eastern Time (ET).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
