Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:44 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 12% chance and No at 88%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the United States and Cuba reach an official agreement on trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the U.S. embargo on Cuba by the specified date, 05:59 CET/CEST the following day. Otherwise, it resolves to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, U.S. sanctions relief for Cuba or any other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution deadline, the market resolves to “Yes” regardless of when, or whether, it later takes effect. Agreements involving the United States and Cuba will still qualify even if other countries are also parties to the deal. Only agreements officially announced by both sides, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, will qualify. Informal statements or announcements that do not amount to a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from the United States and Cuba, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that an agreement has been reached may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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