Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 2% chance and Democratic Party at 97%.
For the NY-08 seat, use the party of the candidate elected to the U.S. House in the 3 November 2026 midterm. Party identity is the ballot-listed or otherwise clearly identified affiliation at the point when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. If no Democratic or Republican affiliation is listed, use the candidate’s most recently stated intention to caucus with one of those parties at that point. Broad agreement in credible election coverage determines the result; if there is ambiguity, use the official U.S. result from the Federal Election Commission. The matching displayed party is YES and the other is NO; if neither displayed party matches, both are NO. Voting ends when the polls close on 3 November 2026 (local time); no later deadline applies, and the result is settled once the outcome is established as described above, however long that takes.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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