Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Democratic Party at a 81% chance and Republican Party at 17%.
YES goes to the party holding a majority of voting seats in the Minnesota Senate after the 2026 midterm results are counted. If neither party has a majority, use the affiliation of the first Majority Leader selected for the convening Senate; if none is selected by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, use Other. Count every regular or special Senate election scheduled for November 2026 as of 31 October 2026, and use qualifying runoffs even when held later. A vacant seat with no such November election or special election keeps the affiliation of its most recent member. For a contested seat, use the affiliation attached to the elected member, even if that member later changes affiliation or leaves before formal organization. For an uncontested seat, use the party holding it on election day; a later change by a sitting member does not alter that result. An independent counts with a party only after formally caucusing or announcing that intent; if unresolved on election day, wait until the earlier of an announcement or 4 January at 11:59 PM ET of the following year, and if neither occurs count the member for no party. Treat Minnesota's DFL and Democratic affiliation as the same party. Official state election records and Senate records decide, with reputable coverage as corroboration.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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