Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 22:33 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
YES requires a court order issued from 25 August 2026 at 22:35:36.600760 UTC through 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET that stops the Truth Social scheme from giving paying subscribers Trump’s messages before the public. Eligible relief includes restraining orders, injunctions of any duration and other judicial orders with that effect. An order making government information public no later than paying subscribers receive it also qualifies if it removes the paid timing advantage. Later reversal, vacation, a stay or replacement of the order does not undo YES, and the order’s duration is irrelevant. Otherwise the answer is NO. Court filings and official court records take priority; agreement among reliable reports may be used as backup.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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