Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 5% to below 6% at a 50% chance, ahead of 6% to below 7% at 23% and 7% to below 8% at 9%.
The sole YES answer is the range containing United Torah Judaism’s vote percentage in Israel’s Knesset election expected on 27 October 2026; all remaining ranges are NO. Calculate it using valid ballots for the party list as the numerator and all valid ballots nationwide as the denominator. Include these votes even if the list fails to gain parliamentary seats. If the party runs jointly with others, include the entire joint list’s votes. A pre-election merger counts the full merged party total, including any joint list it uses. An exact boundary belongs to the upper range. If no definitive result exists by 31 October 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, choose the lowest range. Broad agreement among reliable election reports supplies the result; any ambiguity is decided exclusively by Israel’s Central Elections Committee’s official results.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
