Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Marine Le Pen at a 91% chance, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 46% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 40%.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market concerns that election, whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected under a two-round system. A candidate must win more than 50% of the vote to be elected outright in the first round; if nobody does, the top two advance to a second-round run-off. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round or wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If no such election takes place, or the first-round results are not known by 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2028, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the result as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, the market will resolve solely on the official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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