Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:57 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 21% chance and No at 79%.
YES if Rahul Gandhi is arrested at any point from the opening of this prediction up to 23:59 ET on 31 Dec 2026. Anything else is NO. An arrest counts when police or other law enforcement in any country take him into physical custody, whether he goes willingly or not, and at least one of these also applies: he is booked or processed on a criminal basis; the custody follows a criminal warrant, charge, chargesheet or a comparable charging document; he is kept for remand, bail or extradition hearings or other criminal proceedings, unless only as a witness; or he is taken to a police station or a similar criminal enforcement facility. A warrant being issued, appearing in a chargesheet or being charged while staying free does not count. On their own these also fall short: a short detention, questioning or an interview, a search, house arrest, electronic tagging, protective custody, witness protection or a medical hold. Once a counting arrest has happened, later bail, bond, recognizance, dropped or dismissed charges, acquittal, pardon or any other development leaves the YES in place. The arresting government's and law enforcement's own announcements decide, and consistent reports from reputable news outlets may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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