Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 67% chance and No at 33%.
YES requires PSD (the Social Democratic Party) to belong to the first new Romanian governing coalition formed after 17:33 UTC on 5 May 2026 and to supply at least one cabinet minister. Otherwise NO. The relevant government follows the no-confidence removal of the previous administration on 5 May 2026. Formation is established after Parliament approves confidence and the government members take their oaths. Supporting a cabinet from outside, including confidence-and-supply arrangements without a minister, does not count. If no new government has formed, or its coalition membership remains uncertain, at 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2027, settle NO. Use reliable reporting in agreement; ambiguous cases are determined by official Romanian Government information.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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