Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:09 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES if Luma AI owns the model in first place on the Text-to-Video Arena leaderboard at arena.ai when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026; if the first-placed model belongs to any other company, listed or not, NO. The table used is that leaderboard filtered for Models, read from the Rank column. Models marked AutoEval at the check are ignored, whether or not they show a rank or score. Models are ordered by their displayed rank; models sharing a rank are ordered by which one appears higher in the table, and a remaining tie is broken by alphabetical order of the tied models' company names (for example Google ahead of SpaceXAI). If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the result waits for the first successful check after it is back online. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, NO. This arena.ai leaderboard is the only deciding record.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
