Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 60% chance and No at 40%.
YES applies if Arizona Proposition 144 (HCR 2001), the measure concerning citizenship eligibility for voting and registration and government-issued identity proof, is approved in the statewide election scheduled for 3 November 2026. If the vote is not held or its result is not definitive by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, use NO. Later litigation or failure to implement the measure does not affect this vote result. Resolve from consistent reports from reputable outlets; if ambiguous, use official Arizona information, including the Secretary of State (azsos.gov).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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