Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 10% chance and No at 90%.
YES applies if, by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, Kevin Warsh, the U.S. Federal Reserve, or an authorized representative of either publicly and definitively announces that he has stopped or will stop serving as Federal Reserve Chair. The announcement is what counts: it qualifies even if he is still Chair at the deadline, as long as it presents a departure meant to take effect within 18 months of the announcement (a statement such as leaving in two years, or not staying forever, does not count). Resignation, removal and any other way of leaving all count. Temporary leave, dated or indefinite suspension, administrative leave and other temporary changes to his duties do not. None of these is a definitive announcement: saying he is considering or open to leaving; a departure that depends on conditions; a resignation offer that still awaits acceptance or was refused; media reports that he plans to leave; sarcasm or jokes; and statements by anyone other than Warsh, the Federal Reserve, the authority in charge of the position, or their authorized representatives. If his time as Chair runs on a fixed term that has a scheduled end, only a departure announced to happen before that end counts. If he actually leaves the post before his term is scheduled to end without such an announcement, YES applies when reliable news coverage confirms the departure by the deadline. Official information from Warsh himself or from the Federal Reserve decides; reliable news coverage may also be used. Without a qualifying announcement or confirmed departure by the deadline, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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