Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any period of time between the market's creation and 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". An announcement of her resignation or removal before the market's end date will resolve it immediately to "Yes", regardless of when that resignation or removal takes effect. The resolution source will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
