Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:21 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
This prediction looks at the first Swedish government formed after the parliamentary vote of 13 September 2026. A party counts only if it supplies at least one cabinet minister; outside support, confidence deals and parliamentary agreements without a minister do not count. Only S (Social Democrats), M (Moderates), SD (Sweden Democrats), V (Left), C (Centre), KD (Christian Democrats), MP (Greens) and L (Liberals) are considered; other parties are ignored. The combinations in play are: S + MP + C; S + MP + C + V; S + MP; S + MP + V; S + C; S; S + C + V; S + V; M + KD + L; M + KD + L + SD; M + KD + L + C; S + MP + C + L; S + MP + L; S + M; S + C + L; S + MP + C + KD; M + KD + SD; M + KD; M + SD; M. A combination is eligible only if every party in it is actually in the cabinet. Among the eligible combinations, the one with the most cabinet parties is selected, even if the cabinet also includes parties missing from it. If equally complete combinations remain, the one with more seats in the new Riksdag is selected; a further tie goes to the one with more valid votes in the 2026 election. A cabinet of one party is matched to that party alone. YES only if M + KD + L + SD is the selected combination; otherwise NO. If no combination is eligible, NO. The result is confirmed once the Riksdag has voted on the Prime Minister and the government has taken office; if that is still not the case on 31 July 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Reliable reporting in broad agreement establishes the result; any uncertainty is settled with official information from the Swedish Government and the Riksdag.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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